Fisherman stands on a boat looking for fish from the Indus River in Jamsharo District, Hyderabad City, Pakistan on May 6, 2025. Pakistan warns that any attempt by India to transfer or block its water share under the Indian water treaty. Credit – Jan Ali Laghari – Gate Images
onePrime Minister Narendra Modi vowed earlier this week that military tensions continue to erupt between India and Pakistan.
On April 23, Modi suspended a 1960 treaty that allowed the two countries to share water in the Indus River Basin. However, building infrastructure to prevent water from flowing into Pakistan will take years to achieve, a move that will further form the resources of the Water Sand Country.
Pakistan's water resources are already under burden due to climate change as the country faces increased timing of impact on water flows, drought and melting glaciers and glaciers. Now, India's moves could exacerbate the crisis and face long-term challenges to Pakistan's agricultural sector.
Currently, many Pakistanis do not have access to clean and reliable water sources, partly due to climate change. According to a UNICEF report, more than 10 million people have lost access to safe drinking water in the months after the 2022 flooding killed at least 1,700 people. “It's hard for the local population to consistently get water,” said Bhargabi Bharadwaj, research assistant at the Chatham House Center for Environment and Society. “This has been felt at the local population level and even cancelled the latest escalation of the Indian Water Treaty Agreement.”
Why does India control water supply in Pakistan?
In 1947, when the British were divided by Britain in the South Asian subcontinent, they divided the borders of the Indus River along India and Pakistan. “The problem started on day one,” said Hassaan Khan, assistant professor of urban and environmental policy at Tufts University.
Read more: How India threatens to weaponize water in conflict with Pakistan
Although most irrigation systems in Pakistan fall in India, many of the sources are located in India. “About 80% of Pakistan's agriculture and one-third of its hydropower depends on water in the Indian basin region,” Bharadwaj said. “Pakistan's dependence on this basin is more than on India.”
The Indian Water Treaty was formulated by the World Bank in 1960 and requires both countries to divide the water in the river system equally. The treaty includes mechanisms for resolving disputes and is intended to last forever.
It is impossible for India to completely reduce water supply to Pakistan. “At the moment, India does not have the infrastructure capacity to really store excess water, and if they try to reduce this water to reach Pakistan, this is what they need to do.”
However, experts say India can still cause minor damage, which will affect how much water flows into Pakistan. Khan said, “It is impossible to stop flowing.” “What [India can do] It is the time to affect flow – one day more water will be released and then stopped. [It can] Create these small riots that, if not properly managed by Pakistan, may have an impact on the agricultural system. ”
The low traffic season from December to February may be felt to a large extent.
But Bharadwaj pointed out that the Indian Water Treaty aims to endure many of the struggles the two countries have encountered over the years. “This is not the first time,” she said. “One of the very positive things about the Indus Water Treaty is that it has endured two previous wars, another limited conflict between the two countries, which I think may be attributed primarily to the strength of its design.”
Why is Pakistan water crisis?
Pakistan's water shortage crisis dates back to the country's establishment. “The areas that are now part of the Indus River Basin and now make up most of Pakistan, they are alluvial plains, so they are very fertile, but usually don’t have that much rain,” said Daniel Haines, associate professor of risk and disaster history at University College London, whose research focuses on South Asia. “The ambition to increase the planting area of farmland exceeds the available water.”
As early as the 1930s and 1940s, there were already disputes over different parts of the Indian colonies at that time who would get the amount of water for agricultural projects.
Climate change and rapid population growth are now making things worse. Today, Pakistan is considered one of the most popular countries in the world. Last winter was one of the driest people in the country's history, with Pakistan's meteorological department reporting 67% less rainfall than usual. According to the DermanWatch 2025 Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is ranked as the most vulnerable country affected by climate change in 2022 as it faces one of the most expensive disasters in world history caused by floods, which are the risks and impacts on most disasters on most of the country’s agricultural land. But as the drought increases, pushing more people to cities and putting pressure on urban water supply, farmland has become unusable.
“Now, cities are increasingly stressing because water supply is not keeping up with the increase in population,” Khan said.
More than three-quarters of Pakistan’s renewable water resources come from outside its borders – mainly from the Indus basin, where major cities rely on it for drinking water. Haines said any changes in the country's water supply will have a significant impact on millions of agriculture and livelihoods. “Because Pakistan’s water supply system is already under pressure, even any major damage to the timing, not to mention quantity, can have considerable consequences.”
Write simmone shah atsimmone.shah@time.com.
