Canada's newly elected prime minister will soon meet with U.S. President Donald Trump. A deal with him? That's another matter.
Trump said on Wednesday that Carney would visit the White House in about a week and the prime minister hopes to reach a deal.
However, Carney has three major steps to pass in order to reach the integrated trade and security agreement he is seeking. They are three PS: Personnel, Process, and Policy.
View this meeting – According to the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), it is expected in the “narrow future” to understand early clues about how these negotiations work. Who will lead it? What process will they follow? What are the policies on the table?
Obviously, the ultimate goal is functional relations with the United States, including loose 25% tariffs on Trump on steel, aluminum and some other products.
Carney’s idea is to package tariff conversations with a broader security conversation, a unique location analyst said.
U.S. President Donald Trump spoke at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, commenting on what Canadian elections and leaders of major political parties think of him, and said he hopes Prime Minister Mark Carney will come to the White House next week or less.
Brian Clow manages U.S. relations on Justin Trudeau's PMO and says the office has been dealing with a tariff threat.
Clowe, who is not involved in the current administration, said Carney “has a chance to reset and restart the relationship here,” he is an observer.
“I choose to stay optimistic at this stage and we will get real results.”
But first, Chow said: Put the team and decide on the key figures in Canada, like who will take on the relevant cabinet role, who will lead the process, and there will be a protagonist negotiator?
A negotiation process? Or two?
Step 2 involves the process. Under what will these conversations unfold? There is a slow one: a scheduled review of the Canada-US Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which should begin next year.
But the process will take several months to begin. According to lawBefore starting talks with Canada and Mexico, the United States must hold 270-day consultations with the public and Congress.
Another option is an informal arrangement – a handshake deal.
The third possibility is a combination of the two – a preliminary dialogue, followed by a formal process a few months later.
A senior Canadian official said it could involve two separate talks, but the specific process has not been nailed.
Some trade policy experts in Washington are usually happy to talk about the process of acknowledging when contacted by CBC news is plagued by this trade expert.
Frankly, Trump's trade policy is more Unstable More than Washington Habit Bypass the normal program.
A well-known Canadian predicts that trade and security negotiations will not go through a slower, more formal road.
“Not through Kusma,” said Erin O'Toole, a former federal conservative leader, a new appointment to the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.
He said Trump had already had too many negotiations on tariffs, and too many countries to envision negotiations with Canada through a conventional, more deliberate process.
That brings us to the essence: what problems will arise on the table?
It is clear that Canada’s top priority is the end of tariffs. Ideally, this would include new ones U.S. law limits how they are used, but it's a long shot in the best case scenario and requires Congress, meaning there isn't in a quick deal with the president.
At the same time, the United States is very transparent about many of its requirements. It even released Annual list. Its latest call for changes to Canada's dairy system and digital service tax.
Trump also complains about Canada's military spending and banking regulations. Perhaps most importantly, his team wants fewer foreign parts in the automotive supply chain, often, especially Chinese parts.
Trump's first trade tsar This is mentioned On a recent forum in Ottawa. Robert Lighthizer said that cars are “the biggest thing.” “I hope we can tighten it even more.”
The way O'Toole sees it, Canada can bring the whole conversation together and under one extensive package: Rebuild Democratic Arsenal.
The United States is worried about it Production exhausted capacity From ships to industrial parts to weapons built with critical minerals, things have become a threat to national security.
O'Toole envisions a broad convention in which Canada aligns with the U.S. goals, guarantees that some people can access critical minerals, including uranium, strengthens military cooperation in the Arctic, and brings a huge victory to Trump – guarantees a certain amount of oil supply at a discounted price.
Spoiler alert: Canada has sold the oil to the United States at a discounted price. But, O'Toole numbers, look great in the press release.
“let [Trump] Say he won,” O'Toole said, “that the deal is worth $40 billion over 20 years. …In Canadian returns, this deal wins because we align the integrated defense with…manufacturing. ”
O'Toole said it was all based on Trump's relaxed tariffs. Trump may not remove them all, but even removing some or reducing them to a more manageable speed will help, he said.
He added that this will be more effective for next year's Cusma process.
Perhaps the biggest challenge of these negotiations is to rebuild trust.
Even some U.S. lawmakers questioned why other countries would also reach an agreement with the U.S., knowing that the president might later pose tariffs.
After all, Canada has completed most of the time the U.S. demands. It revised the old NAFTA. Then pat tarifflimit and Sanctions On various Chinese products invest in Canada.
Clow recalls Trudeau mentioned Canadian tariffs on a phone call with Trump after Trump was re-elected Imposed In China.
“The president seemed satisfied with it,” Clow recalls.
Then, a few days later, he threatened to tariffs on everything in Canada and Mexico. Shortly thereafter, Trudeau visited Trump in Mar-a-Lago. Trump called the meeting “Very productive“But immediately started talking about annexation of Canada. In the end, he imposed tariffs but reduced a lot of them.
So will these tariffs continue to linger? Or is Trump likely to suspend some opportunities to build goodwill in negotiations?
Clow said clearly, Canada aims the former’s goal. Carney's team will obviously advocate for a quick evacuation, part of the relationship reset.
“But I'm optimistic about what's going to happen in the door,” Clow said. “Then the goal is to remove it whenever any transaction.”
He agreed that it might take a while.
