The Nintendo Switch 2 will be a big release. We can estimate this based on hype only, but wondering how big the issue of launching raises the wrong question. The main consideration for Switch 2 is whether the gaming industry as a whole will eventually learn the right course from Nintendo's success.
Nintendo will go into details about the full features of Switch 2 and its release window until April 2 (not “2” WIFF on today's Nintendo Direct). On release date, Japanese old-style game producers will show the industry several missing things in the past, while the turbulent years are plagued by studio shutdowns, layoffs and canceled games. That's about keeping players fun, rather than obsessed with the obscene graphics features of each new console.
“The Switch 2 can do a great job, but it’s the answer to Nintendo’s existing problems and the overall question of the video game industry,” Joost Van Dreunen, a longtime gaming market researcher and NYU Stern Stern Business School professor, told Gizmodo in a phone interview. While other major players in the game, especially Sony and Microsoft, try to attract consumers to have more capable processors and components, “Nintendo doesn’t play that game at all,” Van Dreunen said.
Industry experts say that this doesn't necessarily mean that Nintendo will sell as many switch units as the original switches at the time of release, but may sell enough for sale. A sentiment backed by Japanese analyst Serkan Toto, who told Bloomberg that Nintendo would sell 2 switches for “boat load” in the first month of sale. According to Nintendo's February earnings report, Nintendo sold a total of 150 million switch consoles over its eight-year life span.
The Switch 2 just needs to justify itself for the upgrade of the switch owner, which earned Nintendo reputation as a “fun, weird, weird” console maker. All Nintendo has to do is promise medium upgrades, such as 4K functionality (perhaps with the help of AI upgrades), and players may have seen it as the enhancement needed to enhance the aging switch hardware.
But there is one thing that can hinder it. price. Rumors suggest that the Switch 2 costs $400, $100 higher than the switch at the time of release and $50 higher than the Switch OLED. That's still $100 less than the PlayStation 5 ($300 less than the PS5 Pro) or the Xbox Series X. But Nintendo is more expensive. Van Dreunen suggests that if Nintendo’s target audience is biased towards those without deep pockets, the sequel switch could be in trouble.
Especially because its competitor is not Steam, and Windows handheld handheld rates are similar to it. The Steam Deck OLED starts at $550 and hopes to play most of your PC’s steam library on the go. Overall, PC gamers have more cash burn than converters, and they all end up having two devices in the living room, Van Dreunen said.
Research commissioned by The Verge, an analysis company IDC, shows that nearly 6 million of all handheld PCS merged by all handheld PCS manufacturers have sold over the past three years. Some analysts hope Nintendo hit that number within one-third of the time. Robin Zhu, a Japanese video game industry analyst at UBS, told Bloomberg that Nintendo's total inventory could be between 6 and 8 million new handheld consoles.
The Switch 2 has been cooking for so long that Nintendo should have time to prepare for this moment. The last big gaming hardware launch was NVIDIA's RTX 50 Series GPU launch, which was a disaster for several reasons, mainly because you can't buy one near the recommended retail price. Compared to NVIDIA, Nintendo talks publicly about plans to have enough stock releases. Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa told investors on two different occasions that the company's plan to beat scalpers is to provide enough supply for anyone who wants a Switch 2 to buy one.
While the threat to Trump from the entire tech industry is shaking, it is unclear how it might affect the Switch 2 launch. Some companies have raised prices, while others have delayed the planned large-scale product offerings this spring. Furukawa said at a press conference (reuters reported and Nintendo's translated report) that they “expected some impact on tariffs” and that the company “established a response.” The company expects to have a “minimum impact” on its financial performance. Van Dreunen said he expects Nintendo to quickly track production and shipping to the United States to avoid tariff threats.
Planning and preparation go hand in hand with Nintendo's philosophy. If for brand loyalty, no other reason, the $400 Switch 2 will be sold. But for other gamers, the Switch 2 is a good sign for the gaming industry to check. We don't need more and more AAA games that have ridiculous budgets that require consumers to need $70 or even $100. What we need is an industry that better balances cool features and affordability. Games don’t have to be a luxury, especially when we stare at the barrels of rising prices and economic uncertainty. Nintendo's formula has proved it works for a long time. More and more companies should pay attention.
