India and Pakistan seem to be back from the edge again. But the four-day conflict about the chaotic enemy of nuclear weapons is new, and many of the basic accelerators are still volatile, so little can indicate that the armistice represents any restrictive mode that restores the old mode.
A new generation of military technology has promoted a dazzling aerial upgrade. The tide of air strikes with modern weapons and anti-aircraft shells set the stage. Soon, their first weaponized drones joined the broad boundaries of the two countries and penetrated into their territory – hundreds of people in the sky explored the defenses and strikes of each country without any pilot's risk.
Missiles and drones then crossed the border areas, deep into Indian and Pakistani territories, crashing directly into the air and defense bases, prompting terrible threats and the highest level of military alerts.
Until then, international diplomacy – a key factor in the past retracement between India and Pakistan seemed serious, just like the last moment before the disaster. In a new global chapter defined by dangerous conflicts, distracted leaders and international responsibility to keep peace, the safety net never seems to be thinner.
“Historically, many Indian-Pakistan conflicts have ceased due to external interventions,” said Srinath Raghavan, a military historian and strategic analyst.
Mr Lagawan pointed out that neither country has an important military industrial base, and the need to rely on foreign arms sales means external pressures have an impact. But the position of both sides seems to be more extreme this time, especially as India seems to want to see if it can achieve a different outcome from the previous conflict.
“I think the Indian government seems to have a stronger determination to make sure that Pakistanis don't feel like they can escape or get out,” he said. “It's definitely part of the escalation. Neither side seems to feel like letting this end end on the other side because they've already prevailed in some way.”
After the battle, the political reality of India and Pakistan – everyone was plagued by deep-rooted religious nationalism. This may have created the most powerful push towards a confrontation that may be out of control again.
Pakistan is dominated by a military institution that kills civilian institutions and runs by a tough general who is the product of decades of efforts to make the armed forces. The victory of Indian nationalism is the use of secular democracy in India as an open Indian state that promotes an uncompromising attitude for Pakistan.
On Sunday, there is still no indication that Pakistan or India may repair its diplomatic ties, which is cold even before the military escalation and could also alleviate visa restrictions on each other's citizens. And India does not seem to withdraw from the declaration that it will no longer comply with the river treaty between the two countries, a key factor in Pakistan, which says any effort to stop the flow of water will be regarded as an act of war.
The latest spark of the battle is a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians on April 22. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers. Pakistan denies any role.
The crisis ended a six-year break, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Indian government taking a two-pronged approach to Pakistan: trying to isolate its neighbors with minimal contact and strengthen security at home, especially through the heavily militarized Kashmir Indian side.
India has established an escalating military operation model against terrorist attacks in 2016 and 2019, and India has placed itself in the position of maximum response. The political pressure to provide a strong military response was immediately following last month’s attack.
But the choice of Indian troops is not easy. In 2019, it had its last direct clash with Pakistan when a transport helicopter fell and Pakistani forces shot down Soviet-era Indian fighter jets and captured pilots.
Since then, Mr. Modi has worked hard to modernize his army, pouring billions of dollars, hindered by supply restrictions caused by Russia's war in Ukraine. India also had four years of skirmishes on its Himalayan border with China, where thousands of troops maintained their foothold in the war.
While using force against Pakistan the past week, India wants to put those lost reputation and past difficulties behind it. It also seeks to show a new, more muscular approach on the world stage, not only to leverage its rising economic and diplomatic capabilities, but also to leverage its military power.
Western diplomats, former officials and analysts who study the dynamics between India and Pakistan, said India emerged from this latest conflict, looked confident and aggressive, and perhaps had established some new levels of deterrence with Pakistan.
But the performance of the combat is not recommended for improvement at the operational or strategic level, they said.
In the first round of air strikes on Wednesday, India's targets within enemy territory were deeper than they have been in decades and in all respects it was close enough to the terrorist organization-related facilities that could win the championship.
Each day that followed was filled with Indian and Pakistani language, which showed that they had achieved what they wanted and were ready to restrain themselves. But every night is full of violence and escalation. More traditional artillery shells across the border are intensifying, bringing the worst loss of life. Drones and air strikes are becoming more and more bold until every country's most sensitive military and strategic sites are targeted.
With the obvious help of the Saudis and other Persian Gulf countries, it seems that it ends up triggering huge diplomatic pressures from the United States, not only is the goal getting closer to sensitive locations, but it is just what the next step in the rapid escalation phase of two shocking nuclear forces may mean.
Shortly after the ceasefire was announced late Saturday, Indian officials have shown that any new terrorist attacks on Indian interests will be achieved by similar force.
“We have left India's future history to ask about the advantages of gaining political strategy, if any,” said General Ved Prakash Malik, former head of the Indian Army.
Hari Kumar Contribution report.
