Rising oceans could replace millions, triggering a global immigration crisis, warning
Even at 1.5 degrees Celsius, rising sea levels will force millions of people to flee coastal areas, a new study shows. The authors of the study warn that even current warming levels could cause multiple feet of sea levels to rise to the end of the century, with dire consequences for coastal residents.
The study was published in the journal Communication to the Earth and the Environmentwhich suggests that even at 1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial average (our current average warming level), it can lead to catastrophic sea level rise and mass migration.
If the current trend persists, “you will see massive migrations that we have never seen since modern civilization.” CNN.
As ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were rapidly lost since the 1990s, the oceans would rise, and are now the biggest source of sea level rise.
In this study, a team of scientists from the UK and the US used evidence from warm periods 3 million years ago, latest trends in ice loss, and climate models to predict future ice sheet changes under several climate scenarios.
Looking back, they found that about 15,000 years ago, at the end of the last ice age, sea level rose 10 times faster than today. The last carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere was higher than today, about 3 million years ago, sea levels were 33 to 66 feet (10 to 20 meters) than the current sea level.
The authors found that even though we quickly and dramatically cut fossil fuels to reach the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature target, even if we set future sea level rises to be the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, which is considered the best way to prevent the worst effects of climate change, has almost slipped. Shockingly, the new study found that 1.2 degrees C would produce several meters of sea level rise.
The authors found that the security limit may be less than 1 degree. More research is needed to determine the actual critical point, the researchers say.
Currently, we are at 2.9 degrees Celsius for global heating, which is certain that the ice sheets in Greenland and western West Antarctica will completely collapse. The melting of these ice sheets will cause 40 feet (12 meters) of sea level to rise. Currently, 1 billion people live within 32 feet of sea level, and about 230 million people live within 3 feet of sea level.
“People need to realize that sea level rise is likely to accelerate a very difficult rate to adapt — a centimeter of time per year is not impossible in the lifetime of our young people,” said Chris Stokes, a climate scientist at Durham University and lead author of the study.
Last year, the global average temperature reached 1.5 degrees C for the first time, although it has not reached the average of 1.5 degrees C. Still, there is time to do something about all of this. The authors urge immediate, urgent climate action to slow the worst effects of sea level rise, which is the number per inch.
“We don't have to say the loss of 1.5 degrees Celsius, but a small part of what we're saying is really important for the ice sheet, and the sooner we can stop warming, the better because that makes it easier to return to safer levels.”
