Despite the market's best winning streak since 2004, Wall Street remains anxious
00:00 Speaker a
The day after the 500 S&P 500 S&P (S&P 500) reached its best winning streak in 20 years, U.S. stock futures were lower this morning, which helped to eliminate all its liberation days losses. But Wall Street strategists are not convinced of the smooth path ahead. Here, if the tariff optimism takes courses, Yahoo Financial Markets reporter Josh Shafer, OK, now a little optimistic, but I guess there is still some optimism, but still lacks a cleansing of the deal.
00:50 Josh Shafer
Yes, over the past two weeks, it seems like that when we've gone through the key parts of what we've heard about trade deals, it's good, there's a discussion, right? Initially, there was obviously no discussion, so this seemed positive news. Some discussions were held with multiple government members, saying they were close to the deal last week. It seems that strategists want to see a deal, right? What does a transaction actually look like? Then, how did the market react to the deal, right? Therefore, our price is positive because this deal will lower the tariff rate for a given country, but what is the actual number, and the market's response to this remains an imminent question. I think the other thing that stands out for this gathering is the relatively stable revenue this quarter, right? Of course, you mentioned Ford last night, perhaps not so steadily removed the guide, but returned to the big tech last week. That must be part of this rally, right? And you've seen stocks react positively to revenue, which helps to improve the index. Lori Calvosina collapsed above RBC Capital Markets, though stressing that this might have started running. What is my next catalyst, right? The next catalyst may be more information about trade deals. Then you will also have a Fed meeting tomorrow, and I think a lot of people want to hear some pointless Powell, who may be able to cut expenses when needed, and investors also want more assurances in this regard, but after the rise, I think here, this is a little cat, we think of a new cat, we have to pay a little, but we can't?
03:24 Speaker a
We do not have any trade agreements at the moment. The president said over the weekend that a deal with China can reach up to two to three weeks. Deals may be reached with other countries this week. To what extent do the sources you are talking to really rely on these trade deals, or the next catalyst, or can you come here with some other catalyst?
04:02 Josh Shafer
I think this is mainly in the coming weeks, especially a trade deal, Maddie. Just like the next one is probably at the end of May, right? I think people want to see actual progress start to happen because remembering another key part of this story we've been talking about is how much uncertainty plays in the economy, right? So if we don't know what the actual tariff rate will be, that will continue to freeze businesses, which is still pending for overall activity. So it seems like a lot of people are hovering here for a two to three weeks time frame, which basically brings us into the end of May, it doesn't matter here, we want to really see something, hear something. I do think that from the perspective of other catalysts, the data that will start to appear in the next few weeks will also start to be interesting, right? You will get an April inflation report, which theoretically may have a certain degree of tariff impact on it. You will get the next two or three weeks and then push it out again. You will earn NVIDIA income. The data you will also be dripping from May starting in early June, and will the work report increase? Now, we're talking about a month, but is that going to keep going? You will start to have an impact from the tariffs that actually pass through in the next few weeks of data, which feels like it will be a big test for the rally.
06:18 Speaker a
Well, another catalyst may come from the Fed. If we hear them talking about the meaning of any kind of balance sheet they navigate in this section, perhaps not all, we start this major quantitative easing process, and without cutting, it is also the market that can also see it as a near-term catalyst.
07:16 Josh Shafer
Of course, Brad. Another thing I think I'm interested in this Fed meeting is that you've seen this big move that investors expect from tax cuts this year, right? Last week, investors expected four tax cuts. Now, the work report has dropped to three in less than a week. So it seems that investors are beginning to realize that maybe the Fed won’t cut too much this year, and maybe these slowdowns are not in June. They may start in July. They may start later this year. But if Powell actually says the day or hints at this, the market will still make a big stride, right? Sometimes you have these expectations to go to the Fed meeting, and Fed Chairman J. Powell said what he said before, or what the market thinks it is understandable, but you still have a negative reaction to it, or a positive reaction to it. Even if he just confirms people’s feelings, there is usually some kind of keen move. So I think it would be interesting to see where we are going tomorrow at 3:00.
08:40 Speaker b
Yes, it was very exciting to pay attention to this conference. As always, the most important thing since the last time I worked. Thank you so much. Really grateful.
