Last summer, Ukraine launched a bold attack on a major bet, the first Russian invasion since World War II. The invasion of the Kursk region shocked Moscow and provided the Ukrainians with much-needed morale boost, but after months of fierce fighting, Russia has recently gradually regained almost all its territory.
With efforts now to reach a peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow, Ukraine appears to have once again gambled on a small Russian invasion. Ukrainian officials said that in recent days, Ukrainian troops have made new cross-border pushes in the Bergorod region, analysts from open source intelligence and Russian military bloggers said.
While the extent of Ukraine’s march into Bergorod is unclear and Ukraine’s intentions are unclear, military analysts say it could be an effort to attract Russian forces from Kursk to relieve pressure there. Analysts say Kyiv may also hope to seize another Russian land that could provide diplomatic leverage.
But Moscow is reluctant to make real concessions when Ukrainian forces remain in Russian territory, and the new push in Kiev is clearly at risk as they extend on the broad frontline.
Military analysts say the scope of the invasion appears to be more restrictive than Kursk's movement, and so far it has occupied only a thin territory on the border. It is unclear how many troops were involved or how much Russian reaction was.
Ukraine has not yet publicly acknowledged new attacks on Russian soil. However, three Ukrainian military and government officials confirmed that an operation is underway in the Bergorod region in southern Russia, with Ukrainian territory near Ukrainian territory last summer occupied in the neighboring Kursk region. Officials talked about a confidential operation on anonymous condition.
Russia has not spoken publicly about any Belgorod invasion. The Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment.
Belgorod Region Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said in a telegram post on Friday that parts of the region are currently unsafe, citing drone and artillery attacks, but he did not mention Ukrainian troops crossing the border.
Andriy Kovalenko, a senior Ukrainian government official, focused on false actions by Russia, declined to say whether there was a cross-border invasion.
But he said the battle continued to protect Ukraine from Russian attacks, which included “destroying the enemy's concentration on the territory of the Bergorod region, as the enemy planned to use these concentrations on our territory.”
Russian military bloggers, including well-known analyst Valery Shiryaev, said Ukraine used armored vehicles to cross the border and in response, Russia deployed Chechen battalions, regular army soldiers and naval infantry.
Russia and Ukraine have been working to secure their position on the battlefield and diplomatically – before the next U.S. broker talks begin on an undetermined date.
Talks between U.S. envoys and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia, respectively, failed to consolidate a broad ceasefire agreement. The promise of a truce in the Black Sea by Moscow and Kyiv has brought many warnings and so far no action has been taken to stop the attack.
The Washington-based research organization, Ukrainian troops crossed the border on March 18 and entered the village of Demidovka on March 18. The group said the troops later entered three other settlements near the border.
Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Finnish-based Blackbird Group, said his organization had validated its organization and had several videos showing Ukrainian troops entering the Belgorod region. Ukraine managed to “security a proper buffer of defensive terrain and occupied several villages within the first few days after the attack,” he said, bringing reinforcements.
He said a village, Demidovka, now appears to be under Ukrainian control.
The New York Times verified videos confirm the presence of people in the military uniforms of the village of Demidoka in the Bergorod region. The Times could not confirm that the person in the video was Ukrainian troops.
Major General Viktor Nazarov, a former senior adviser to the Ukrainian General Staff Headquarters, said Kiev is likely to hope that the operation will improve its negotiated position by capturing more Russian land.
General Nazarov, who is ready for international human resources in the institute, said similar hopes for the bid to attack the Kursk region have become bleak as Russian troops regain their territory.
Mykhailo Samus, director of Kiev’s independent new geopolitical research network, said the operation appears to be aimed at blocking potential Russian attacks on Ukraine and diverting Russian forces from other aspects and strengthening Ukraine’s position in the conversation.
The action, he said, would show that “Ukraine is taking active action and needs to consider Ukraine’s argument.”
Ivan Nechepurenko Report in Tbilisi, Georgia Nataliia Novosolova From Kyiv, then Sanjana Varghese From London.
