Last year was the hottest record, with global average temperatures passing the pre-industrial era benchmark of 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time. At the same time, the growth rate of world energy demand has risen sharply, almost doubled.
It turns out that record heat and rapid rise in energy demand are closely linked, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.
This is because hotter weather leads to the intensification of the use of technologies such as air conditioners. Electrical-hungry appliances put pressure on the grid, and many utilities meet increased demand by burning coal and natural gas.
All of this is filled with disturbing feedback loops: a hotter world requires more energy to cool houses and offices, while fossil fuel energy is easily obtained, which leads to more planetary heat transfer. This dynamic is exactly what many countries hope to stop by developing renewable energy and nuclear power plants.
In other words, the IEA estimates that if extreme weather in 2024 does not occur – that is, if the weather in 2024 is exactly the same as in 2023, the global increase in carbon emissions this year will be cut in half.
This is not all bad news: more and more global economies are growing faster than carbon emissions. “If we want to find a silver lining, we will find that economic growth continues to be decoupled from emissions growth,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the agency.
We will bring this newsletter to you on Monday, not our usual Tuesday, in line with the release of the IEA report. These are the five gains from last year's energy trend. We'll be back in your inbox on Thursday.
Extremely high heat helps drive global demand
The report found that one of the main factors that increased global electricity demand last year was extreme heat, especially heat waves in the United States, China and India. Last spring, temperatures in New Delhi reached 126 degrees Fahrenheit, and temperatures in northern China broke records.
The IEA found that all increased loads have consequences. These temperature effects drive a fifth of the total increase in electricity and gas demand.
Other power-intensive sectors grow in 2024. For example, data center capacity has increased by about 20%, mostly in the United States and China.
High temperatures cause more coal to burn
Renewables, such as solar and wind, are not good at dealing with sudden surges of large electricity during heat waves. And, they are still not getting fast enough to achieve global goals for renewable capabilities by 2030.
To meet urgent demand for electricity and help people avoid thermal stress, some countries burn coal to help with air conditioning and other cooling technologies.
This led to a record increase in overall coal demand by 1% last year. The agency's report found that the entire increase in coal demand could be explained by extreme temperatures.
China remains the world's largest global coal consumer, burning 40% more coal than the rest of the world.
Global electricity demand has increased
In 2024, global energy demand grew by more than 2%, almost the average annual growth in the first 10 years.
This trend is in full swing: oil, gas, coal, renewable energy and nuclear energy are all rising demand. Much of the global growth is concentrated in countries in emerging economies led by China and India.
These numbers have even increased in the EU, with energy demand largely not growing since 2017, with an exception to the after-hours rebound year.
What are the consequences of all these growth? Energy-related carbon emissions once again hit record levels in 2024. Last fall, the IEA estimated that global CO2 emissions would peak in the coming years, and then decline by 3% by 2030, under current national policy commitments.
According to the United Nations, global emissions will need to fall by 43% in 2030 to bring global warming below the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold established in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Renewable energy and nuclear are growing
About 80% of new electricity generation comes from renewable energy and nuclear teenagers, with renewable energy accounting for one-third of total electricity generation.
The solar device is responsible for the charge. In the United States, solar and wind energy surpassed coal for the first time.
The report found that global carbon emissions would increase by 7% last year without cleaning technologies such as solar, wind, nuclear, electric vehicles and heat pumps.
For the first time, oil dropped below 30% of global energy demand
Last year, oil demand growth continued to decline, including factors such as consumers buying electric vehicles and abandoning gasoline-powered vehicles.
Last year, only two categories accounted for all the growth in oil demand: aviation and transportation and plastics.
With cars and trucks powered, plastics have become an increasingly important part of oil companies' growth plans, while other industries use less oil. Petroleum is a key material in plastic manufacturing.
EPA's investigation into severe pollution is becoming increasingly risky
Under the Biden administration, the EPA has taken a tough attitude towards environmental law enforcement by investigating pollution, hazardous waste and other illegal acts.
On the other hand, the Trump administration said it hopes to shift the EPA’s mission from protecting air, water and land quality to a task that tries to “reduce the cost of buying cars, heating homes and running a business.”
As a result, the future of several long-term investigations suddenly looked unstable. The new EPA memo lists the latest changes.
From March 12, EPA enforcement actions will no longer “close any phase of energy production” unless there is an imminent health threat. It also reduced Biden’s motivation to start addressing the low level of pollution faced by poor communities. – Hiroko Tabuchi
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