Economists continue to revise estimates of Trump's tariff policy. Most possibilities still bring us back to the 1910s.
President Trump's tariff policy proposals, adjustments and temporary notes have made investors and economists scramble to cover up the exact impact on the overhaul of U.S. trade relations.
However, this series of revisions has not changed the obvious implications of the President’s policy recommendations today: We are going back in time. go back.
Current estimates of effective tariff rates for all U.S. imports range from 22% to 27%.
The high end of the range would make tariffs exceed the last in 1903. At the lowest point, tariffs will be the highest since 1910.
Read more: Latest news and latest news about Trump tariffs
Last weekend, news broke out about some temporary electronic exemptions imported from China. This is the latest information on a series of engravings or pauses after Trump announced the reciprocity tariffs on April 2.
Last week, Trump's concern over the issuance of mutual tariffs by non-attributor countries, decided to “pause” the additional taxes. Meanwhile, the president doubled in the trade war with China.
According to estimates from the Yale University Budget Laboratory, China's tariff rate (now 145%) initially raised the overall average effective tariff rate in the United States to 27%, the highest since 1903.
But just a few days later, Trump announced the exclusion of smartphones, computers, semiconductors and other electronics, which economists described as an expansion between the two countries.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean to the economy and your wallet
“The result is that the overall effective tariff rate for U.S. imports is now 22%, a lot higher than last year’s 2.3%, but a lot lower than yesterday’s 27%,” Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a comment on Saturday following the electronic announcement.
“The increase in China’s title tariff rate is still 145%, but once these exemptions are taken into account, the effective increase is now close to 106%.
Yale's budget lab has not yet reduced its estimate by 27%.
“Trump aims to inspire domestic production and return manufacturing to the United States, and its effective U.S. tariff rates are still rising by 15 percentage points,” the Goldman Sachs economic team, following the latest developments led by Jan Hatzius, wrote in a client notes on Sunday.
Wall Street currently has tariffs between 2% and 3%.
Like most of Trump’s tariff promotions, the White House is still sending mixed messages.
