I sold tickets at my daughter's school as my phone kept buzzing. People call and text me if I can. Former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa just posted on social media platforms that criticized my interview with El País, and I said his party is working to deal with the popularity of incumbent President Daniel Noboa.
Mr. Correa is known for his low tolerance for criticism, and he wrote in Belgium exile: “Does anyone know who Caroline Ávila is?” This is a signal of his millions of followers. Within minutes, I became the center of the digital fire-posts defended my work and attacked me and the journalist who wrote the El Pace Story. That day, I really learned about the full weight of Mr. Correa's lasting impact in Ecuador.
Although not even living in the country, Mr. Correa remains one of the most influential and polarized figures in Ecuadorian politics. Not only is his presence maintained by his supporters, but his opponents seem unable to stop talking about him and have not established compelling options. Mainly, they simply viewed Mr. Correa as a relic of the past. This seemed to have only strengthened his control over the people.
Mr. Correa ruled Ecuador from 2007 to 2017. His administration chaired a surge in public investment driven by massive oil revenues and Chinese loans that both support ambitious infrastructure projects and expand access to health care and education. For many Ecuadorians, this is a stable and powerful national presence for years. However, during Mr. Correa's presidency, the concentration of executive power, the erosion of institutional inspections and balances, and the repeated attacks on journalists and opposition leaders also attracted serious concerns about the democratic reverse line.
He has lived in Belgium's self-exile since 2017, which has given him political asylum in 2022.
Mr. Correa was legally banned from running for president again, but he still leads Ecuador’s largest political party and maintains a strong digital presence. Mr. Correa has 4 million followers on Tiktok and X, continuing to shape Ecuador’s political discourse. On Tiktok, he commented on the current incident, criticized the government and defended the legacy of the government, often using humor and keen language to connect with young audiences. He raised the party’s priorities and messaging and strengthened his role as a powerful political force.
The Ecuadorians took part in the polls in the second round of the presidential election on Sunday. By all signs, it is unlikely that Mr. Correa's influence will disappear regardless of the outcome. Neither candidate seems ready to offer a bold and coherent vision to replace the one he left behind.
Mr Correa promises certainty in uncertain times, but critics believe his administration has weakened the rule of law and set disturbing precedents. Today, this double legacy—a substantial advancement to some and a substantial advancement to institutional vulnerability to others—is still at the heart of his lasting influence.
The three presidents followed Mr. Correa's left-wing government: Lenín Moreno, Guillermo Lasso and the current Mr. Noboa. The latter two are rights to the political aisle, and Mr. Moreno (who had served as Vice President of Mr. Correa and then his successor) moved to the right immediately after taking office. Meanwhile, the situation in the country has deteriorated. The poverty rate rose from 21.5% in December 2017 to 28% in December 2024. The homicide rate soared from 5.6 per 100,000 at the end of 2016 to 38.76 per 100,000 by the end of 2024. Without credible leadership, many voters reviewed Mr. Correa's desire.
The candidates for Sunday's election were the 37-year-old businessman Mr. Noboa and former MPs Luisa González and Mr. Correa were elected as successors. It is a tense race that reflects the deep political divide in the country. In 2023, Mr. Noboa beat and defeated Ms. Gonzalez with the support of the Anti-Inmates League.
Ms. Gonzalez may benefit from the time of nostalgia. Most former president supporters are expected to vote for her. She responded to Mr. Correa’s centralized approach to security policy and advocated a strong national role in law enforcement. However, her platform lacks clear recommendations on judicial reform and institutional safeguards. Given that organized crime networks currently undermine Ecuador’s stability, she provides details on how to strengthen judicial independence or coordinate with international partners.
One of Mr. Noboa's main election challenges was the turmoil that tortured his government. He maintained an openly controversial relationship with his vice president and a major oilfield negotiation was suddenly cancelled due to lack of transparency in public protests. His government faces allegations of authoritarianism for its reliance on militarization to combat crime, especially when four children died shortly after being detained by military patrols.
To move forward, the country must provide voters with something they have never seen in years: Ecuadorians want safety, but not at the cost of military repression. They want a strong economy, but don't come at the cost of corruption or impunity. They want social justice, but not for political loyalty.
The country must have a stronger intelligence agency to conduct criminal investigations and be supported by an independent judicial system. The new president should prioritize investment in education and youth reintegration programs to prevent recruitment of organized crime. Mr. Correa's model promotes a strong state, the only way to social well-being, but Ecuador can demonstrate that transparent, effective states have the same capacity to grow and fair.
I realized how far his influence still stretched when people responded online to Mr. Correa’s posts that Sunday. But there are other things that happened. The public outcry for defending my work was so powerful that Mr. Correa deleted the post and apologized. He doesn't know me or my job as an academic and independent analyst. Obviously, it was strange for him that someone might be outside the political gap.
In Ecuador, you are either with Mr. Correa or against him. Anything else is considered suspicious. But this is the trap the country needs to escape. To truly transcend his legacy, leaders must inspire a new vision for the country. Until then, Ecuador will remain a country that is struggling between memory and possibility.
Caroline Ávila Nieto is an Ecuadorian scholar and doctoral fellow. In the communication. She has taught at Cuenca University, Azui University and Simon Blival Andes University. Her research focuses on political exchanges and a critical understanding of Ecuador’s election and government processes. She lives in Cuenca, Ecuador.
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