Asteroid YR4 won't hit the Earth, but scientists can't rule out the moon hits – Nation
According to scientists, the possibility of the asteroid “kill the city” hitting Earth in 2024 is no longer a threat, but it could hit the moon.
James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) made the discovery after completing the first of two planned asteroid observations in 2024.
“While the Earth's impact on December 22, 2024 has been ruled out, it currently has the possibility of non-zero impact on the moon,” the researchers wrote in the preliminary report.
In the next few years, a second round of JWST observations will be set before the asteroid can disappear into the external solar system.
According to Professor Karri Muinonen of the University of Helsinki, if the asteroid lands on the moon in 2032, it may throw debris into the surrounding space.
“If asteroids affect the moon, they can cover the Earth's system with particles separated from the moon and asteroids, and may threaten human space infrastructure and operations,” he said.
Near-Earth asteroid made headlines in late January, when NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) announced their existence and said it had a 1% chance of contacting our planet.
This figure briefly sees the most risky asteroid in 2024 labeled as the Sentry risk table of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Research (CNEOS).
“Asteroids of this size affect Earth every millennium on average and can cause serious damage to local areas,” ESA said in a space security briefing. “So the object rose to the top of the ESA's asteroid risk list.”
In another update in mid-February, the Space Agency increased the chances of asteroids colliding with Earth in 2024, with the likelihood of impact rising to 3.1% or one in 32 impacts, which is the highest probability of collisions.
This is the highest risk assessment asteroid has ever received, after 2.7% of apophis hit in 2004. NASA said that in 2032, there is a 2.6% chance of asteroid hitting Earth in 2032, while 38 impacts are the same, with the probability of appearing on the roulette wheel.
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On February 7, NASA experts increased odds by 43 opportunities.
Scientists have previously said that while the possibility of impact cannot be ruled out, no one will panic.
By February 18, the space agency announced that the current phenomenon of space rocks collided with the Earth was about 3%.
But on February 20, Cneos said the risk had dropped to about 1.5%.
“The latest decline in impact risks,” NASA wrote, “Asteroids' new observations for 2024 have helped us update our impact opportunities in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%. ”
“Our understanding of asteroid paths will improve. We will keep you in a timely manner,” the agency said. The agency recommends that more updates will be available.
According to estimates of its reflected light, the width of the asteroid is between 40 and 90 meters.
According to data from the International Asteroid Warning Network, if it does hit the Earth, it will cause “severe explosion damage” in 2024, 50 kilometers away from the impact site.
– With files from Michelle Butterfield from Global News
& Copy 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
