President Vladimir V. Putin has been strengthening a clear message with his officials as the world waited to see if he appeared in Türkiye for ceasefire negotiations. They win on the battlefield, so they deserve what they want.
Mr Putin said in late March that Russian troops had an advantage throughout the front and suggested that Moscow approach the conquest of the Ukrainians – the argument used by the Kremlin to support the hard ball demand. “We have reason to believe we will intend to end them,” Putin said, adding: “People in Ukraine need to be aware of what is going on.”
Andrei V. Kartapolov, head of the Russian Parliament's defense committee, reiterated the message on Tuesday, saying Ukraine needs to recognize that Russian troops are moving in 116 directions. He added that if Ukrainians don’t want to speak, they must listen to “the language of Russian bayonets.”
A tough approach is accompanied by game skills about peace negotiations. It is unclear whether Mr. Putin will participate in the talks proposed by his initial intermediate delegation in Türkiye. Mr. Zelensky made a bet, saying he would participate, and hoped to meet Mr. Putin, knowing that Mr. Putin would not want to meet him. President Trump said he might go if the Russian president goes.
Mr. Putin puts everyone in trouble.
The Russian position challenges the Trump administration, who found that Russian officials did not seem to prove justified demands on the situation on the battlefield. Although Russian troops seized the advantage and occupied the territory, they were far from defeating the Ukrainians and advanced at a high cost.
However, in talks with Trump administration officials, they insisted that Ukraine strictly limits on the military, including the number of soldiers and the number and type of weapons. They have been asking Moscow to claim to have annexed the entire territory in all four regions in eastern Ukraine, including two regional capitals controlled by Ukraine.
“Russia can't expect them to not even conquer,” Vice President JD Vance said in an interview with Fox News earlier this month.
Any success in the negotiations may depend on some way to convince Mr. Putin that he will benefit more from his passionate relationship with the United States rather than a costly step-by-step gain in the fight.
Over the past 16 months, Moscow has occupied 1,827 square miles of Ukraine, a smaller area than Delaware.
During this period, the U.S. government estimated that Russia lost 400,000 troops to be killed or injured, which is a high cost to control less than 1% of Ukrainian territory.
Russia is not easily convinced. Mr. Putin strongly hopes Ukraine surrenders and believes that the United States, the strongest supporter of Kiev, has withdrawn its support.
In the war of loss, a breakthrough in progressive rate can be proposed if the failed side exhausts the troops and ammunition and their defense lines eventually collapse. This may be what Russia is counting on: Ukraine's wartime population is less than a quarter of Russia's, and he lost many soldiers holding the line.
Russia also has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, although Mr. Putin said he has not seen the need to use it yet. It has huge weapons production capacity and it will be even worse if our supply to Ukraine drys up.
Mr. Putin also does not seem to be troubled by further threats to the West. EU officials have taken a step towards further sanctions on Russia, including a plan to cut the “shadow fleet” of ships transporting oil, according to diplomats familiar with the matter. While Mr. Trump threatens the new sanctions, he has not imposed anything yet.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Russian European Center, said Mr Putin expects Ukraine's defensive line to gradually weaken.
“It will be a serious psychological blow, and the elites will say, 'Zelensky, get out of here. We will now reach an agreement with Putin,” Ms. Stanovaya said. “Putin thinks all this should happen and will happen.”
But he also wants to protect his relationship with Mr. Trump, the most friendly US President of Russia in years. Ms. Stanovaya said Mr. Putin would continue to try both ways, adding that this is why the Russian leader proposed the talks.
“The proposal to hold a delegation meeting in Istanbul is to try to include Trump in the negotiation process,” she said. “He did not do this for the Ukrainians, but for Trump, just for Trump.”
As a result, everything that happened on Thursday would be “a show.”
“Both sides will try to play their role,” she said. “But in reality, the conditions are not really serious discussions about any truce or peace.”
Jeanna Smialek Reports from Brussels.
