For years, European leaders have not known to reduce their dependence on the willful United States. On Monday, at a hastyly arranged meeting in Paris, the manually waving position gave way to accepting a new world, and Europe's most powerful allies began to be more like opponents.
President Trump plans to weigh in with Russian President Vladimir Putin (V. painful trade-offs and expensive new burdens.
On the desktop, Britain, France, Germany and other countries may deploy thousands of troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers. The European government is ensuring a significant increase in demand for its military budget – levels not found since the Cold War era in the early 1980s, if not for the 5% of the GDP Mr. Trump demanded.
“At present, everyone is being hyped right now,” said Lawrence Freedman, an honorary war studies professor at King's College London. “It's obvious that Europe has to step up no matter what happens.”
This can put leaders in a difficult position. While public support for Ukraine remains strong throughout Europe, forces that assume potentially dangerous obligations in Ukrainian soil may quickly become domestic political responsibility. Estimates on the size of peacekeeping forces vary greatly, but in any case, within the budget, this would be a very expensive undertaking.
French President Emmanuel Macron first proposed the idea of peacekeeping forces last year – widely skeptical in Europe – he has been weakening and bringing him amid decision to hold parliamentary elections last summer The fragile government.
After being elected on February 23, Germany may not have a new coalition government. On Monday, its Prime Minister Olaf Scholz dismissed the topic of “totally premature” and “highly inappropriate” for peacekeepers, while the fight remains fierce.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has not had to face voters for four years, said Britain is willing to “put our troops on the ground if necessary.” But former military officials said after years of budgeting, the British army Incapable of leading Ukraine's large-scale long-term missions.
“Frankly, we don’t have numbers, we don’t have equipment,” Richard Dannatt, former head of the British Army, told the BBC. He estimated that Britain would have to provide up to 40,000 soldiers to a 100,000 troops.
For some Europeans, it is too early to talk about the post-continental era. Mr. Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned leaders not to enjoy the transatlantic alliance regardless of the current tensions.
In fact, peacekeeping forces will be difficult without U.S. logistics support. Analysts say the U.S. security assurance is crucial to political acceptance in the European capital, where some leaders will have to win parliamentary approval. Mr Starmer talked about the “U.S. defender”, which he said was “the only way to effectively stop Russia from attacking Ukraine again”.
Professor Friedman said he believes senior Trump administration officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz understand these reality and are reluctant to go from Europe pulls the United States' security umbrella. But he said Mr. Trump's goal was difficult to decipher. The Europeans were deeply shocked by the power of his unlimited power in his home.
“In the past, you thought it was a serious, capable country,” Professor Friedman said. “Think that wasn't the case. In a sense, the guardrail wasn't there.”
At the Munich security conference in the past week, Vice President JD Vance delivered a fierce speech, urging Europeans to stop avoiding far-right parties and accusing them of suppressing freedom of speech.
These comments have caused pain among Europeans. “We have to worry that our common value base is no longer so common,” said Christoph Heusgen, who chaired the conference. Mr. Heusgen was obviously excited at the end of his speech and later clarified that , his strong feelings were because he was leaving work, not his reaction to Mr. Vance's comments.
Many Germans view Mr Vance's comments as an election intervention. The Vice President who skipped the meeting with Mr. Scholz did have time to meet with the co-head of the German Party or the AFD's far-right alternative. The mainstream German political parties refused to enter the coalition with the AFD, which German intelligence agencies classified as extremist organizations.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump threatened to crack down on the EU with widespread tariffs. This could hurt the group's economy, which would make it more difficult to increase defense spending. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte called on the coalition members to increase their spending to “a substantial amount of GDP over 3%” (3.4% in the U.S. spending).
In 2023, Germany spent 1.5% of its GDP on the Ministry of Defense, while France spent 2.1% and the UK was 2.3%.
In addition to political and economic provocations, European leaders are working to understand the Trump administration’s strategy toward Ukraine. Mr. Heggs' speech showed that the United States' support for Ukraine's war goals has decreased – European leaders regretted it but privately admitted that they shared it.
However, Finance Minister Scott Bessent visited Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, last week, suggesting that the United States could provide Ukraine with a “long-term security shield” as long as it gains access to valuable minerals in the country. Mr. Trump announced his negotiations with Mr. Putin, which turned a blind eye to European leader and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“The contradiction is the American approach,” wrote Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior researcher at the Russian and Eurasian University at a research group in London. This shows that the United States alone will negotiate the outcome of the war, but Europe alone will have to pay for it and implement the outcome, and it does not play a role in the decision.”
This assumes that Mr. Trump can reach an agreement with Mr. Putin. Analysts pointed out that the United States has granted Russia two major concessions – excluding Ukraine's membership in NATO and suggesting that it is unrealistic for Ukraine to regain all its territory without receiving any returns.
Some compared Mr. Trump's approach to his first term in North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Mr. Trump met with Mr. King in Singapore to give him a valuable concession – there are no more military exercises between the United States and South Korea – without getting a mutual gesture. The negotiations have spread and North Korea has not yet abandoned its nuclear arsenal.
Analysts say that in this case, at least for now, European leaders have to commit troops, which may prevent European leaders from committing it.
“Unless the ground stance greatly improves Ukraine’s advantage, it is hard to imagine Russia signing a deal that allows a large number of NATO troops (including British troops) to be on its borders.” Joint Services Academy, a research team in London.
Professor Friedman said Mr. Trump would have to convince Mr. Putin to agree with the terms that Mr. Zelensky could accept, which is an extremely far-reaching shot.
“We're far from what makes sense,” he said of the peacekeeping force. “I can't get rid of the incompatibility that Trump can offer with what Russians want.”
