The chances of asteroids hitting Earth in 2032 have changed. But, what are the risks?

Recently, an asteroid known as 2024 may have fluctuated the chances of hitting Earth in seven years, but experts have not prepared for the worst.

At the end of 2024, a telescope funded by Rio de Janeiro (NASA) in Chile was first discovered in 2024, and a month later scientists concluded that an asteroid could fall to Earth in December 2032.

When scientists first reported their findings in January, they expected the asteroid’s future trajectory and probability of impact to change as observational data are collected and analyzed. That's exactly what happened.

On Tuesday, astronomers reported that the likelihood of collision with Earth increased to about 3% in 2024, which is unusual for asteroids just 130 to 300 feet wide. By Wednesday, this impact assessment dropped to 1.5%.

“But the probability of the impact is still small, so people shouldn't really worry about that,” said Davide Farnocchia, navigation engineer at NASA's JET Propulsion Laboratory and Near-Earth Object Research Center.

Is it normal for the risk of impact to increase so rapidly?

Yes, there are scientific reasons for the sudden increase in probability changes. But the probability will also drop suddenly.

Initially, you may have a small influence because “you can’t rule out possible collisions with the earth, [but] At some point, the probability will be zero. ” Farnocchia said.

When an asteroid is discovered, scientists cannot determine their exact future location, but can collect data to predict their location is within range. NASA SpaceFlight reports that if that range overlaps with the Earth, there is a chance of collision.

With more observational data, astronomers’ predictions of asteroid trajectories and future locations have become more accurate.

Still evaluating the current trajectory range of the 2024 trajectory (based on hundreds of observations) is still being evaluated, so the range is large and currently overlaps with the Earth. That's why we see an increase in percentage of possible impacts.

As astronomers continue to collect data, the range may shrink so much that it no longer overlaps with Earth, and the chances of hitting our planet in 2024 will become zero.

The current 2024 trajectory is almost a straight line from the Earth, and astronomers will continue to collect observation data until they are out of sight. They must not track possible collision routes and future locations of the asteroid until early April.

You can follow the results of the astronomer's post on the Sentinel webpage.

Where will the asteroids fight?

In unlikely, the asteroid's trajectory is connected to the Earth, and its impact point will be along somewhere in the “risk corridor”, which is spread throughout the eastern Pacific, North America, South America, Atlantic Ocean, Arabian Sea and South Asia. . International Asteroid Warning Network.

Have we experienced such asteroid events before?

Yes, astronomers pointed out the asteroid 99942 Apophis, 1,099 feet wide, first identified in 2004.

According to the initial sightings of NASA officials, Apophis is one of the most dangerous asteroids in the sky, threatening to blow up Earth in 2029.

In an early assessment of impact risks, Apophis met the Torino Scale 4 rating, a scale that categorizes potential Earth-affected events.

The range of 0 to 10 ratios ranges from no danger (Torino Scale 0) to normal (Torino Scale 1), to attention by astronomers (Torino Scale 2 to 4), threats (Torino Scale 2 to 4), threats (Torino Scale 5) to 7) to a certain collision (Torino ratio 8 to 10).

After collecting further observational data and evaluations, scientists ruled out the probability of impact on Apophis, and currently, an announcement in 2068 is unlikely to have an impact.

As for 2024, it is currently classified as Torino 3.

Asteroids scored on Torino Scale 3 are not common, as the classification occurs only in asteroids larger than 65 feet, with a probability of impact of 1% or higher.

Even if this asteroid hits Earth, it could burn in the atmosphere and turn into a much smaller meteorite before landing.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, slightly larger asteroids may cause it to be in the atmosphere through the atmosphere, but usually collapse at locations that cause minimal or no immediate damage. Many meteorites end up entering the ocean or open areas.