Nintendo's Switch 2 sales forecast forecasts 15 million gaming consoles in its first fiscal year
Nintendo threw some cold water on Switch 2 sales estimates, even if the release demand doesn't seem to be on the chart. In its latest earnings report, the company expects to sell 15 million switch 2 units in the first year of March 2026, less than the analysts’ forecast of 16.8 million. It doesn't explain the number, but it's likely due to uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and the fact that Nintendo is usually cautious about its predictions.
Switch 2 sales exploded and resellers sold out immediately, and the company said that pre-orders for Nintendo Switch 2 won't arrive until June 5th release. This shows that there is a lot of demand for new models after eight years of conversion, but Nintendo delayed bookings last month due to concerns about Trump’s tariffs on electronics. Despite concerns (the buyer complaint about the $450 price), the company received 2.2 million booking applications in Japan alone, a figure that Nintendo said “far beyond our expectations”.
Nintendo president Shuntaro Furakawa spoke with investors after the earnings report, warning that U.S. tariffs are an area beyond the company's control. according to Yahoo JapanFurakawa explained that Nintendo's current policy is to treat tariffs as a fee, but if additional tariffs require prices to rise in the U.S., demand in the country may drop. He also stressed that daily spending and rising food prices could have a negative impact on customers’ gaming budgets. Currently, the company expects to sell 45 million Switch 2 games this fiscal year.
Nintendo has sold over 150 million switch consoles to date, including 17.79 million in the first 13 months – so the Switch 2 is at a similar speed even with conservative estimates. Anyway, it has to have a good year as sales drop off the cliff (down 30.3% from last year), as one would expect, new consoles are coming.
Updated, May 8, 2:30 pm: After the release, the story has been updated to include comments from Nintendo President Shuntaro Furakawa, which covers the potential impact of tariffs on conversion sales.
