Germans voted in a rare steal election on Sunday, which threatened European countries with tariffs in the new Trump administration, lifted them out of negotiations in Ukraine and accepted negotiations from authoritarian Russia.
Prime Minister Olaf Scholz was called after the unpopular and long-wrong tripartite government in November. Seven months ahead of the original seven months, the current vote fell in Europe's struggle for strong leadership and recalibrated its relationship with the United States.
Although politicians and countless volunteers have caused excitement in the contest during the short and dark winter campaign, the polls have never changed much. Friedrich Merz and his Conservative Christian Democratic Alliance have high leadership skills.
Germany (AFD)’s tough alternative is expected to rank second, with voters’ dissatisfaction with mainstream parties and fear of immigration. Polls show it may have performed the best ever.
Prime Minister Saltz's Social Democrats won in 2021 and is expected to be third, just ahead of the Greens. Social Democratic Party, the oldest political party in Germany, Because it was banned by the Nazis, it might help with its worst performance.
But uncertainty abounds. Here are some things to watch out for:
Two companies, three people
No political party can get enough votes to rule and rule directly. The most important question will be how many times it takes to form a government.
Mr. Meiers' Central Christian Democrats and far-right Frenchmen share the widest majority. But, as the neo-Nazi association polluted the AFD, Mr. Melz and all mainstream leaders said they would not form a government with the government. Instead, they The so-called “firewall” will be added to the goal of disengaging extremists from power.
This puts Social Democrats on the left because they are Mr. Mays’ most likely partner. If the two of them do not have enough support to form a majority, a third party is required.
Experience from the current government shows how difficult and unstable the tripartite groups can be. Many analysts say this is a result that can almost bring Germany back to the last three governments collapsed.
Little King
Then, it will be very important, so how small parties perform, and whether they get at least 5% of the support they need to enter parliament.
If the poll is correct, it seems likely that the small Links party on the far left will do it. Polls show that from last year it is expected to explode in one of its most popular members, Sahra Wagenknecht, to extinction, thus extinct.
Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, is called the new party, and this is the first time it has been running nationwide. Its prospects are uncertain.
The other party hovering near the threshold is the pro-business Liberal Democrats. Its leader Christian Lindner is Gold Saltz Government, facilitates Sunday's election. For him, voting would be a test of whether the gambling that saved his party would pay off.
For all these parties, clearing the barriers to entry into Parliament is an existing problem. Without seats in parliament, they would have much less visibility and much less money.
But if they all go to parliament, it could complicate life for large parties, reduce their seats and deny that they have a chance to have a bipartisan coalition.
Will the “firewall” be held?
If AFD is much stronger than expected than expected – over 20% – and will cause efforts to surround it, the problem of “firewall” that mainstream can lift may be exacerbated.
Even among nationalists and anti-immigrant parties in Europe, AFD is considered one of the most extreme people. Parts of the AFD are closely monitored by German domestic intelligence agencies that label it as extremism and potential threats to the constitution. Party members’ teasing of restoring Nazi slogans downplayed the horror caused by the Holocaust and linked it to land to overthrow the government.
However, Trump administration officials accepted the party. At this month's Munich security meeting, Vice President JD Vance called on Germans to stop marginalizing far-right parties, saying: “There is no room for a firewall” and he met Alice Weidel, AFD Prime Minister candidate.
Billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk interviewed Ms. Weidel on his social media platform X and recognized her via video links, then AFD supporters attended the rally to tell them that the Germans were “ I am very concerned about the past.”
Therefore, since Mr. Trump was elected in his second term, the power displayed by the AFD can prove not only as a leader in German politics, but also as a political trend in Europe.
Given the Trump administration’s new hostile ties with Germany and Europe, whether it can tell whether the endorsement of Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk will help legalize the party and may attract it more widely, and there is Possibly gain wider appeal.
When will we know?
The first forecast will be made once the poll ends at 6 p.m. Sunday in Germany (noon in the United States). Because they are based on a wide range of export votes, these numbers tend to be very accurate. In the last election, once all votes were counted, it was within 1% of the final vote published in a few hours.
But this year, the predictability of exiting the poll may be less predictive. Unusual voters told pollers that they have not made up their minds and that more voters are using mail-in ballots, so they are not figuring out in exiting the polls.
Most Germans will be glued to TV at the end of the vote. Expect photos of each party headquarters, everyone crowded with the lead candidates (depending on the different people at the party) – champagne or beer Steins – waiting for those first results.
