The 2026 Social Security Coke forecast has just been updated. This is bad news for retirees.
Social Security beneficiaries will receive an annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) to maintain purchasing power for benefits consistent with rising prices across the economy. Official Coke in 2026 was not confirmed until October 2025 because it depends on inflation data for the third quarter, which was collected between July and September.
However, the League of the Elderly (TSCL), a nonprofit senior advocacy group, recently raised its 2026 Coke forecast to 2.3%, according to recent economic data. This is higher than its January estimate of 2.1%. While the upward revision sounds like good news, especially when so many retirees think 2025’s Coke is too small, it actually comes with two bad news.
First, 2.3% of Coke may accelerate the timeline for the Social Security Trust to run out, while Congress has less time to address the funding issue of the program. Second, based on how Coke is calculated, the increase in cost of living in 2026 may underestimate inflation. This means (again) the possibility of losing purchasing power next year.
The Older, Survivor and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Fund is an account that holds payroll tax dollars until monthly Social Security benefits are paid. Interest earned on trust fund assets is an important source of funding for the program, but it will disappear within a decade. The trustees expect that the OASDI Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2035, at which point the tax revenue will cover 83% of the scheduled benefits.
To be detailed, depletion of the OASDI Trust Fund does not mean that benefits payments will cease. Instead, this means that Social Security will lose its source of funds – the interest income earned by trust assets – without the plan, only 83% of the scheduled benefits. This means that unless Congress finds a solution to the funding problem, benefits will be automatically reduced by 17%.
Importantly, the trustee made several assumptions about the economy and population to estimate the bankruptcy date of the OASDI Trust Fund. One of these assumptions is that benefits will receive 2.2% of coke in 2026. But TSCL is expected to have bigger Coke. If its estimates are correct, Social Security will cost more than the trustees expected in 2026, which could drive the expected bankruptcy date.
In other words, if the 2026 COLA of Social Security exceeds 2.2%, the OASDI Trust Fund may be exhausted by 2035. Best case scenario: This means Congress will have less time to find solutions to the social security financing problem. Worst case: Automatic benefits cuts will be faster than expected. Either way, this is bad news for retirees and other beneficiaries.
