President Trump has promised a bold new approach to the world. There is nothing more urgently needed than Afghanistan. The Taliban rulers not only overwhelmed dissent and deprived the country of women and girls; they also took Americans hostages and allowed Afghanistan to become a neural center for violent jihad networks such as al-Qaeda. We all know what happened on September 11, 2001, and it was the last time that existed.
The Trump administration faces a distinct choice: to further Afghanistan into jihad or to engage with the Taliban pragmatically. Given the cruel nature of the regime and the painful history of the United States in Afghanistan, participation is a difficult case. But dealing directly with the Taliban may be the only way to gain enough leverage to minimize serious potential threats to U.S. national security and interests.
The Biden administration's approach (neither overthrows the regime nor does it normalize) has enabled the Taliban to have any positive impact on the country in the United States. Afghanistan needs Realpolitik – putting results above ideals. The tough deal aspect of Mr. Trump’s “America First” outlook may provide the right framework.
The Trump administration should establish at least limited diplomatic operations in Afghanistan and even reopen the U.S. embassy in Kabul to promote regular contact with Taliban leaders to achieve the ultimate goal of deploying professional intelligence teams in the country to track and respond to potential threats .
The administration’s policy to the Taliban is unclear, but there is reason to believe that Mr. Trump will adopt a new approach. He has criticized the U.S. policy in Afghanistan to achieve transcendent and unrealistic goals. He has taken bold actions against Afghanistan before. In 2020, his first administration negotiated a U.S. Taliban deal (later executed by President Joe Biden) ended the longest war in the United States.
Recently, Mr. Trump made clear his interest in recycling military equipment left by the United States is $7 billion. He also said the huge Bagram air base should be controlled by the United States to check China's power in the region. These goals would not be possible without direct contact with the Taliban.
Mr. Trump is worried that China's influence in Afghanistan is correct. After the U.S. evacuation in 2021, China opened up diplomatic missions in Kabul and expanded ties with the Taliban. It welcomed the Taliban ambassador to Beijing, and its forged relationships with the Taliban security forces and Chinese companies have obtained commercial contracts in industries such as oil and mineral extraction. Beijing believes that Afghanistan is important to strengthen China's influence in the region through economic ties. But the Taliban still regards the United States as its preferred partner, and proactive policies can help China's influence.
Afghanistan is purely from a terrorism perspective and requires us to pay attention. The country is home to radical groups, the Taliban controlled the Taliban and now has a free Rein. The Taliban has opened thousands of Medellasas, religious schools, where young people may be exposed to the notion of jihad and bring potential breeding grounds to extremists for future generations. The hijacking of foreign hostages has resulted in a swap with the United States to release Taliban terrorists and drug traffickers.
The Islamic State Horasan Province or ISIS-K is a particularly powerful threat to the organization's regional branches in Afghanistan and Pakistan. ISIS-K, inconsistent with the Taliban, has been expanding external operations and recruitment, especially in Pakistan and Central Asia, and has carried out targeted assassinations in Afghanistan. The Department of Homeland Security warned in October that the risk of attacks outside the group such as ISIS-K is growing and has exposed various plots and threats. Jihad is just a text message away from radical recruits in the West, including diaspora communities. This means that any counter-terrorism efforts against Afghanistan must also include a more robust intelligence gathering in the United States itself, as well as preaching to trusted diaspora leaders to help identify and undermine threats.
The Taliban also retained long-term ties with Al Qaeda, providing the group with shelter in exchange for its promise of reluctance to orchestrate the soil attack in Afghanistan. This arrangement depends on the Taliban's remaining isolation, which helps protect al-Qaeda from foreign pressure. Therefore, the Taliban has a huge potential leverage on the Mujahideen network, which can be used to serve the interests of the United States.
Michael Waltz, Mr. Trump’s new national security adviser, said the administration needs to re-examine U.S. intelligence and counter-terrorism measures to ensure the U.S. is no longer caught off guard as it was in 2001. Establish communication with the Taliban clergy. The lack of this situation in the United States has left Washington blind to the organization’s internal power structure and potential factional rifts that could otherwise provide opportunities to achieve its goals.
The Taliban may seem like a whole, but it is not. Reflecting the racial diversity of the group, its stubborn Emir Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada led an uneasy faction and tribal alliance with different levels of priorities and extremism. As with any governing organization, common internal tensions on personnel issues and policies include Emir’s fees for regular schooling on refusal to deny women and girls. A more pragmatic faction favors reconciliation with the United States, making the regime more globally legitimized and improving the horrific economic situation in Afghanistan. The Taliban deputy foreign minister praised Trump last month for being “decisive” and “brave”, calling for the reopening of the U.S. embassy, and said the Taliban would reward if the U.S. expanded its hand of friendship.
The Taliban is difficult to deal with. But Afghanistan is an important work in the wider jihadist puzzle. It is unrealistic and risky to keep standing and wait for the Taliban to collapse. On the other hand, direct participation may open the way for tracing and destroying terrorist plots. In the long run, it may even give the United States enough influence to help improve the overall direction of Afghanistan, including human rights.
Interacting with the Taliban is a painful pill for the United States, but as Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently pointed out, U.S. foreign policy is often the choice of “the least bad”.
